快速查题-ACCA英国注册会计师试题

Over an 18-month period, sales have been found to have an underlying linear trend of y = 7.112 +3.949x, where y is the number of items sold and x represents the month. Monthly deviations from trend have been calculated and month 19 is expected to be 1.12 times the trend value.What is the forecast number of items to be sold in month 19?

Based on the last 15 periods the underlying trend of sales is y = 345.12 - 1.35x. If the 16th period has a seasonal factor of -23.62, assuming an additive forecasting model, what is the forecast for that period, in whole units?

Unemployment numbers actually recorded in a town for the second quarter of the year 2000 were 4,700. The underlying trend at this point was 4,300 people and the seasonal factor is 0.92. Using the multiplicative model for seasonal adjustment, what is the seasonally-adjusted figure (in whole numbers) for the quarter?

Monthly sales have been found to follow a linear trend of y = 9.82 + 4.372x, where y is the number of items sold and x is the number of the month. Monthly deviations from the trend have been calculated and follow an additive model. In month 24, the seasonal variation is estimated to be plus 8.5.What is the forecast number of items to be sold in month 24? (to the nearest whole number)

Which of the following are necessary if forecasts obtained from a time series analysis are to be reliable? (i) There must be no unforeseen events (ii) The model used must fit the past data (iii) The trend must be increasing (iv) There must be no seasonal variation

What is the purpose of seasonally adjusting the values in a time series?

The following data represents a time series：

      X        36      Y         41          34             38       42

A series of three point moving averages produced from this data has given the first two values as 38 and 39. What are the values of (X, Y) in the original time series?

sing an additive time series model, the quarterly trend (Y) is given by Y = 65 + 7t, where t is the quarter (starting with t = 1 in the first quarter of 20X5). If the seasonal component in the fourth quarter is -30, what is the forecast for the actual value for the fourth quarter of 20X6, to the nearest whole number?