This objective test question contains a question type which will only appear in a computer-based exam, but this question provides valuable practice for all students whichever version of the exam they are taking. Shuffles is attempting to decide which size of fork-lift truck to buy to use in its warehouses. There are three grades of truck, the A series, B series and the C series. The uncertainty faced is the expected growth in the on-line market it serves, which could grow at 15%, 30% or even 40% in the next period. Shuffles has correctly produced the following decision table and has calculated the average daily contribution gained from each combination of truck and growth assumption.
Which truck would the pessimistic buyer purchase? Enter only the letter:
This objective test question contains a question type which will only appear in a computer-based exam, but this question provides valuable practice for all students whichever version of the exam they are taking. Shuffles is attempting to decide which size of fork-lift truck to buy to use in its warehouses. There are three grades of truck, the A series, B series and the C series. The uncertainty faced is the expected growth in the on-line market it serves, which could grow at 15%, 30% or even 40% in the next period. Shuffles has correctly produced the following decision table and has calculated the average daily contribution gained from each combination of truck and growth assumption.
Which truck would the optimistic buyer purchase? Enter only the letter:
This objective test question contains a question type which will only appear in a computer-based exam, but this question provides valuable practice for all students whichever version of the exam they are taking. Shuffles is attempting to decide which size of fork-lift truck to buy to use in its warehouses. There are three grades of truck, the A series, B series and the C series. The uncertainty faced is the expected growth in the on-line market it serves, which could grow at 15%, 30% or even 40% in the next period. Shuffles has correctly produced the following decision table and has calculated the average daily contribution gained from each combination of truck and growth assumption.
Based upon the scenario information, if the buyer was prone to regretting decisions that have been made which truck would the buyer purchase? Enter only the letter:
This objective test question contains a question type which will only appear in a computer-based exam, but this question provides valuable practice for all students whichever version of the exam they are taking. Shuffles is attempting to decide which size of fork-lift truck to buy to use in its warehouses. There are three grades of truck, the A series, B series and the C series. The uncertainty faced is the expected growth in the on-line market it serves, which could grow at 15%, 30% or even 40% in the next period. Shuffles has correctly produced the following decision table and has calculated the average daily contribution gained from each combination of truck and growth assumption.
Based upon the scenario information, if the probabilities of the given growth rates are 15%: 0.4, 30%: 0.25 and 40%: 0.35, which truck would the risk-neutral buyer purchase?
A manager has to choose between mutually exclusive options C and D and the probable outcomes of each option are as follows.
Both options will produce an income of $30,000. Which should be chosen, on the basis of the expected value decision rule?
Fill in the blanks.
(a) Maximin decision rule: choosing the alternative that …………….….... the ……...….……………..
(b) Minimax decision rule: choosing the alternative that ……………….… the …….….……………....
(c) Maximax decision rule: choosing the alternative that …….…………… the………...……………...
(d) Minimin decision rule: choosing the alternative that ……….………….. the…......…………………
A company is considering the development and marketing of a new product. Development costs will be $2m. There is a 75% probability that the development effort will be successful, and a 25% probability that it will be unsuccessful. If development is successful and the product is marketed, it is estimated that:
Expected profit Probability
Product very successful $6.0m 0.4
Product moderately successful $1.8m 0.4
Product unsuccessful ($5.0m) 0.2
What is the expected value of the project?
Consider the following diagram.
If a decision-maker wished to maximise the value of the outcome, which options should be selected?
How is expected value calculated?
If the decision-maker is trying to maximise the figure, what figure would the decision-maker choose at point B in the diagram below?